Gross lending rocketed 30% year-on-year in November, according to figures published today by the Council of Mortgage Lenders. There was an estimated £17bn of gross mortgage lending in November, compared with the £13bn lent in November last year. Lending dipped 4% from the £17.6bn lent in October.
Earlier this month, the CML estimated gross lending would hit £170bn by year-end. This is significantly up on the £156bn it forecast for 2013 a year ago. The trade body has predicted gross lending of £195bn next year.
Despite the massive improvement, CML chief economist Bob Pannell says lending is unlikely to go much further beyond £200bn over the next few years due to the new rules being implemented through the Mortgage Market Review.
He says: “New rules hardwire in a more risk-averse lending environment for the future and so, while we expect lending to rise in line with better economic conditions, the next two years are unlikely to see lending levels getting very far above £200bn a year.”
Moneysprite director Ashley Brown says: “It feels like a booming market but we are still way below the historical norm. That’s how bad things got. Lending conditions do look set to get slightly tougher during 2014, and rates will only be going one way, which will act as a natural check on overall loan numbers. But sensible lending conditions are no bad thing and are essential if we want a long-term, sustainable market.”